ENERGY INTERNATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (EIRA)
AN INDEPENDENT MONTHLY REVIEW
VOLUME 3
ISSUE 11
November 2015
ISRAEL : NETANYAHU WANTS TO SET LEVIATHAN AFLOAT

 The five year stalemate around the giant gas field named Leviathan, located offshore Israel, might be finally resolved after a chain of events alarmed politicians and energy strategists in the only patch of land with not a drop of oil. Personally Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stepped into the ring, displaying readiness to take the full responsibility for precipitating the stalled project against all odds, which are many.  But first came the lightening news of the Italian energy major Eni discovering the Zohr gas deposit offshore Egypt with an estimated resource bas of some 850 bcm (the largest find since 1967). It turned into a game changer, diminishing the prospects of Israel to reach out to potential customers in Egypt and, for fear of Zohr’s export potential, to other energy hungry clients in the vicinity.

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GREECE : US LNG OFFER IS GOOD, BUT IS IT GOOD ENOUGH?

The tentative design model of providing Greece with a reliable source of energy supplies envisages, as reported, the trilateral holding comprised of two local companies, DEPA and GasTrade, and the US high-flyer Cheniere, which will be placed in charge of delivering, processing and distributing liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving from overseas. Moreover, part of the re-gasified substance, as stipulated in the original concept, would be shipped further north to Bulgaria via the much heralded and anticipated interconnector between the Balkan neighbours. Officials on both sides understandably play up the project by promising Greece, and also Bulgaria as the onshore extension of the LNG “flexible pipe”, that the appearance of a string of tankers loaded with US shale gas condensed to app. minus 160 degrees, would not only cover the essential energy needs of the traditionally energy poor Balkans but elevate the two countries to the status of regional energy hubs.

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ENERGY IN-SECURITY OF SUPPLY HAUNTS THE BALKANS

The ongoing conflicts in Middle East, North Africa and Ukraine are putting under pressure the security of natural gas supply in the Balkans. This region is more concerned with sustainable gas in-flows than other parts of Europe because of the underdeveloped infrastructure, financial constraints and limited resources. With the European Commission promoting diversification of supplies, which envisages lessening dependence on Russian gas, the issue is reduced to finding a viable alternative in terms of volumes and cost effectiveness. Where there is alternative gas, which, theoretically, could come to the Balkans? Azerbaijan has basically sold all possible volumes and international consortia are building the necessary pipelines to bring it to the market, mainly to South Italy. So far, 16 bcma will be transported through TANAP/TAP pipeline, 6 bcma out of which are designated to source Turkey.

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HELP WANTED. HOW CAN LIBYA BE PIECED BACK TOGETHER

Events in Libya are no more drawing global attention: with the focus of international diplomatic and military attention concentrated on Syria. This North African desert and oil rich country seems to be written off by the international community, including the energy industry.  However, in the frail shadow of oasis the UN is trying its best to find a solution to the 4 years long decay of the Libyan State, now basically inexistent. Bernardino Leon, UN special envoy, is witnessing the futility of his efforts to create a kind of unified system of governance. Libya as a country does not exist any more, it is a kind of terra nullius where nobody is able to incarnate the idea of national sovereignty. Roughly, the country is split between 2 rulers, each with a government and a parliament, each pretending to represent the supreme legality. This standoff dates from July 2014. One entity is based in Tripoli, the capital city, the second is based in Tobruk, at the Far East of the country.

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TURKEY : MID-TERM STABILITY THREATENED BY LONG-TERM RISKS

Convincing as it is, the return to the parliamentary majority rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey does not ensure a troubles-free management of a nation, caught in the grips of a latent identity crisis, for either Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, the AKP leader, or the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. True enough, the glorious comeback of the embattled AKP, which had lost the majority of seats in the national legislature last summer (general election took place on 7 June), is an indication that people are sick and tired of the “sea of troubles” that befell them from all sides. That knot of anxieties encompasses the negative impact of many ill-conceived and miscalculated decisions taken by AKP leadership in the last years, and that is:

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SYRIA AWAITS VERDICT OF 19 JURY PEACEMAKERS

The meeting in Vienna of Foreign Ministers from 17 countries plus representatives from UN and EU did not bring any breakthrough in the solution of the more than 4 years civil war in Syria. Was it reasonable to wait for one right now? No, for sure. But the mere fact that Vienna brought together at one table all the external parties to this bloody conflict which are responsible for its beginning and evolution, those who are waging a proxy war on the Syrian ground, having different goals and agendas, is a breakthrough. The gathering in Vienna’s Imperial Hotel and the 8 hours negotiations, including a number of bilateral talks, produced a 9 points agreement on how to proceed toward a political solution of the crisis. The agreement stipulates, in particular, preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity and government institutions; secular nature of the country; protection of all ethnic and religious groups; negotiation process between the Government and opposition under the UN supervision in order to work out a political settlement with a formation of an inclusive Government; a new Constitution and new elections once again under the UN supervision; a cease-fire agreement.

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NEWS IN GREEK
Συνέντευξη του Υπουργού Περιβάλλοντος και Ενέργειας, Γιώργου Σταθάκη στο www.liberal.grκαι στους δημοσιογράφους, Γιώργο Φιντικάκη και Βασίλη Γεώργα
Υπό απόλυση και ο ομογενής προσωπάρχης του Λευκού Οίκου!
Aνακοίνωση της δεξαμενής σκέψης BiE/ Ελληνο-Βρετανική Πρωτοβουλία για το δικαίωμα παραμονής των Ελλήνων στη Βρετανία μετά το Brexit (brineurope.com)
Drop the Target: Theresa May accused of 'sabotaging' Government plan to explain benefits of immigration
Μίχαλος: Τι θα συμβεί στις επιχειρήσεις και την οικονομία μετά το Brexit
Δύο ώρες είχε «στην απομόνωση» ο Κοτζιάς τον Μπόρις και του ξεκαθάρισε – «Εάν θες να είμαστε φίλοι…»
O ΥΠΕΞ Ν.Κοτζιάς για τα δικαιώματα των Ελλήνων της Βρετανίας
Η προστασία των Ελλήνων από το Brexit, η γεννοκτονία των Ποντίων στη Βουλή των Λόρδων και τρεις Έλληνες συγγραφείς
Ένας Ελληνας καθηγητής υψώνει ασπίδα προστασίας στα ‘θύματα’ του Brexit
Διαμαρτυρίες ομογενών εναντίον της ελληνικής πρεσβείας Λονδίνου
Αγωνία για το μέλλον των Ευρωπαίων φοιτητών στη Βρετανία εκφράζει ο πρύτανις της Οξφόρδης
Ο "Πατέρας της ΑΟΖ" έχει κέφια και εμείς ανταποδίδουμε!
WSJ: Ο Φλιν θέλει να καταθέσει για Τραμπ – Ρωσία με αντάλλαγμα ασυλία
ΑΛΦΑ: Το ανεπίσημο όργανο προπαγάνδας της ΣΙΑ και του αμερικανικού πενταγώνου ενδιαφέρεται για την Ελλάδα;
Οι δυσκολίες στην αξιοποίηση των ενεργειακών αποθεμάτων μας
Σταθάκης: Μοντέλο στους υδρογονάνθρακες η σύμβαση για το οικόπεδο 2 – Ξεκινούν άμεσα οι επαφές με ΕΛΠΕ για το οικόπεδο 10
Χατζηδάκης: Να προχωρήσουμε σε νέους διαγωνισμούς υδρογονανθράκων για οικόπεδα στο Λιβυκό Πέλαγος
Χ. Φλουδόπουλος: Νέες έρευνες σε Κέρκυρα, Κρήτη και Κύθηρα για υδρογονάνθρακες
Ενεργειακό Συνέδριο ΕΒΕΑ, ΗΑΕΕ και ΕΔΕΥ
Μίχαλος: Η αξιοποίηση των υδρογονανθράκων αποτελεί ζήτημα εθνικής σημασίας
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